Ubisoft’s free-to-play shooter XDefiant is facing serious challenges, as revealed by CEO Yves Guillemot. During a recent trading update call, Guillemot admitted that XDefiant’s performance was “behind expectations,” adding weight to the recent reports that suggested declining player numbers and a lack of engagement. This represents a significant shift from the initial optimism Ubisoft had for the game.
XDefiant was intended to be a major player in the free-to-play shooter market, positioning itself as a viable alternative to heavy hitters like Call of Duty, Apex Legends, and even Ubisoft’s own Rainbow Six Siege. However, the numbers indicate a different story, raising concerns about the game’s viability and whether it can capture the audience it initially sought to attract.
XDefiant’s Engagement Struggles
At the end of August, Tom Henderson of Insider Gaming reported that XDefiant was experiencing “continuously declining player numbers and lack of player spending.” Henderson shared insights from sources close to the company, painting a bleak picture of the game’s current state.
One source informed Henderson that “the game has been struggling to obtain 20,000 concurrent players across all its platforms.” This figure is telling, given the scale and expectations set by Ubisoft for the game. Another source suggested, “They [Ubisoft] would probably be happy with that number,” implying that the actual concurrent player counts could be significantly lower than the 20,000 mark.
For a comparison, other successful team-based shooter games often boast vastly superior player numbers. Apex Legends, for example, recorded over 198,873 concurrent players in the last 24 hours. Valve’s Deadlock saw a 24-hour peak of 119,315 players, and Team Fortress 2 had a peak of 56,715 concurrent players. These figures are far beyond what XDefiant has managed to achieve, underscoring the challenge it faces.
The most striking contrast comes from Counter-Strike 2, which achieved an impressive peak of over 1.3 million concurrent players in the last 24 hours. PUBG: Battlegrounds also saw a significant 681,189 concurrent players, while Call of Duty reached 74,599 peak concurrent players in the past 24 hours. Even Overwatch 2—which has had its own ups and downs—recorded 52,437 concurrent players in the last 24 hours. Ubisoft’s own Rainbow Six Siege, which has been a long-standing success for the company, managed 65,866 peak concurrent players in the past 24 hours.
These comparisons highlight just how far XDefiant is lagging behind, and they emphasize the challenge Ubisoft faces in establishing the game as a significant player in the crowded shooter market.
And Then, They Lowered Their Revenue Expectations
In addition to the struggles with player numbers, Ubisoft also acknowledged a reduction in its revenue expectations for the second quarter of 2024. Initially, Ubisoft projected €500 million in revenue for the quarter. However, the company recently revised this estimate down to between €350 million and €370 million.
During the company’s Trading Update call, Nicholas Langlet of BNP Paribas asked about the reasons behind the lowered guidance, questioning if it was solely due to Star Wars Outlaws or if there were other underperforming titles in the portfolio. Yves Guillemot responded, saying, “It mostly reflects the softer than expected sales for Star Wars Outlaws. We also had behind expectations for XDefiant, which we will give you a bit more detail at the end of October.”
This admission from Guillemot marks a stark contrast to the optimism the company expressed earlier in the year. During Ubisoft’s first-quarter sales report, Guillemot highlighted the success of XDefiant’s preseason launch on May 21st, stating, “The quarter notably saw the launch of XDefiant, that is off to an encouraging start as we continue to grow the audience at a steady pace and plan a quarterly roadmap of content that will allow us to firmly establish the game over time.”
With Assassin’s Creed Shadows’s delay, it clears Ubisoft is in the middle of meltdown.